That also means technicians who aren't necessarily ready to arm themselves with knowledge of these new models must be ready to perform repairs on these vehicles, and their suppliers need to be ready with the increasing number of parts to follow.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) this spring was charged with putting together a guide of regulating greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles following a Supreme Court ruling.

In mid-June, the U.S. Senate was to begin debating an energy bill (H.R. 6) that would mandate the use of 15 billion gallons of biofuels annually by 2015 and 36 billion gallons by 2022. The first biofuel would be ethanol, but others would be mandated after 2016. The bill's other main focus is to increase average fuel economy standards from 25 miles per gallon to 35 miles per gallon, about a 40 percent increase, by 2020.

Alternative fuels are being discussed throughout the automotive sector and on Wall Street, as noted at this year's Global Automotive Aftermarket Symposium in Chicago. Tony Cristello, senior vice president at BB&T Capital Markets, talked about hybrid vehicles in his presentation at the annual gathering and that there probably will not be many do-it-yourselfers working on their hybrids.

"That's not the audience, that's not the demographic, plus you can kind of get shocked if you don't take the batteries apart the right way," he says. "But I think there's an opportunity here maybe for the distributors, maybe for the installers — again, education, you know, working together. But it's still a small space and so...the jury's still out on this."

Marc Graham, president and CEO of InstallerEDGE, a WD in Vista, Calif., says this is an ever-changing market with hybrids rising to the top.

"We've gone through two decades of analysis of what alternative fuel-powered vehicles could be. It wasn't one decade ago it was going to be all electric, and then hydrogen was going to be the next big thing," he says. "We're a public that is very concerned about emissions and concerned about the environment. But at the same time, we apply the fact that we don't have time to do anything."

Whatever the power source, it must be able to last for a few days, he says. So far, only hybrids have been able to offer that. But there are more than hybrids on the road, and shop operators need to be ready.

A sugar-coated solution

It seems almost like vehicles nowadays can run on practically anything, and if it isn't possible now, that doesn't mean it won't be available in the next several years. While hybrids get the most attention for how they run on both gasoline and electricity, increasing fuel efficiency, other options are out there.

Ethanol has been a topic for years, and is available most often as E85, a blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, it most often is used to increase octane and improve emissions quality. All gasoline vehicles can run on up to E10 — 10 percent ethanol and 90 percent gasoline and not be considered an alternative fuel — but to use E85, you must have a flex fuel vehicle (FFV). There are a number of FFVs available, including the Dodge Durango and Caravan, Chevrolet Suburban, Lincoln Town Car, Nissan Titan and many others.

Ethanol in the United States is made mostly from corn, while other countries have been using sugarcane blends for decades. One downside to ethanol production is the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere. But the National Ethanol Vehicle Coalition (NEVC) counters this by reporting that the CO2 is recaptured as a nutrient by the crops used in ethanol's production. The coalition also says because FFVs are not optimized to E85, they can experience between a 10 percent and 15 percent savings in fuel economy.

Larry Rinek, senior consultant, Automotive Technologies, at Frost & Sullivan, says of the more than 100 million light vehicles on U.S. roads today, 1 million to 3 million of those vehicles can take alternative fuels, mainly E85. But he says because of the difficulty in finding fuel at service stations, "there's actually little or no justification for that many to be on the road."

The NEVC in its database reported 1,234 locations in 41 states selling E85. Minnesota boasts 318 stations and Illinois has 118 locations.

Let's go bio

Sticking with fuels found in plants and their products, biodiesel is growing in some areas. The fuel, for diesel engines only, is made from any vegetable or animal oil, according to Amber Thurlo Pearson, communications specialist with the National Biodiesel Board.

One key factor many promote when it comes to biodiesel is it normally can be used in engines without modification. But Rinek says some automakers are not keen on the new fuel option. He says some engine manufacturers and the Engine Manufacturers Association (EMA) are addressing warranties and their ability to be enforced if biodiesel is used in a vehicle.

"They want to make really sure the fuel they're putting in doesn't gum up the works," Rinek says, adding there are issues because vegetable oils are inherently unstable and have short shelf lives. The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), he says, is trying to come up with agreeable standards for all biodiesel fuels.

"We are working with the OEM community to provide them information they need to adopt higher blends for their warranty statements," Thurlo Pearson states. The most common blend is B20, which is 20 percent biodiesel and 80 percent diesel, she notes. B20 and lower formulas are suggested for year-round use.

In the meantime, she says, "biodiesel is definitely growing in availability, and the root of that is it is growing in the number of plants." Production has tripled in each of the last two years, and there are about 1,110 normal retail pumps nationwide selling biodiesel. According to the board's database, retail locations were found in 47 states, mostly in the Midwest.

For drivers wanting more than just a B20 blend of biodiesel, Jonathan Bernz and Walter Little operate V.O. Tech, the company that created the patent-pending Geo to allow diesel engines to run on straight vegetable oil.

"We're going back to the original concept of the diesel engine in that it's running on the type of oil (diesel inventor Rudolph Diesel) had envisioned," he says. "With petroleum-based diesel, sulfur is added as a lubricant. Without the sulfur, the diesel has very, very limited lubrication. Vegetable oil has no sulfur in it and it doesn't need the sulfur because it's a natural engine lubricant. It lubricates your engine better. These engines will run quieter and smoother."

The vegetable oil, which most users get from restaurants, is heated to between 180 and 190 degrees in the Geo, which uses water from the vehicle's radiator. When started, the vehicle runs on diesel fuel until the vegetable oil is heated; the driver then can flip a switch so the vehicle can run on vegetable oil. Bernz says vehicles get the same fuel economy on vegetable oil as diesel.

V.O. Tech's system is targeted at the aftermarket, and Bernz says there are no standards right now regulating this type of power.

"I don't know if there is a big enough market out there for a company like Ford, Chevy or someone," he offers. "Diesels are only a small percentage of the market, so are they willing to do the research to come up with a product that, of that small percentage, what percentage will be willing to use it? It might end up staying an aftermarket product because of that."

Diesels — more than trucks

What some OEMs are looking at is diesel as an alternative for passenger cars and light trucks. Nissan recently announced plans to offer a clean diesel engine in its Maxima in the United States in 2010. The automaker says the car will meet U.S. EPA Tier II Bin 5 emissions requirements.

This is something we could see more of, according to Rinek. He says Frost's diesel projections are "fairly robust" at up to 10 percent by 2015. However, "this will be light trucks, not much into passenger cars."

According to the Diesel Technology Forum, it is expected that by 2012, there will be 1.5 million diesel vehicles sold. Dodge, General Motors (GM), Ford, Jeep, Honda and numerous others all have diesel models planned for the next few years. The key here is the use of clean diesel, adhering to ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) regulations. The sulfur content of ULSD is 15 parts per million.

A hy-er solution?

While there are no hydrogen fuel cell-powered vehicles on the road, Rinek says this technology is waiting in the wings. He notes Ford and BMW have shown test vehicles at engineering shows, and other carmakers such as GM, Daimler-Chrysler and Chinese manufacturers Shanghai Automotive Industrial Corporation and Chery have hydrogen vehicles in the works. Some automakers expect this technology to be available to the public by 2015.

Patrick Serfass, director, Program and Technology Development, National Hydrogen Association, says hydrogen can be produced from water, natural gas, coal or biomass. When used in a fuel cell to power a vehicle, because the vehicle has zero emissions, it would emit 10 percent to 40 percent fewer CO2 emissions than a gasoline engine.

"Right now, we have enough production capacity in the U.S. to fuel 1 million hydrogen vehicles," he says. "The total capacity in the U.S. is 10 million tons, and it takes about four to eight kilograms to fuel a hydrogen vehicle. There are currently 44 operating hydrogen stations in the U.S. and 51 in North America."

With nothing on the road now, there are many options that could come down in the near future, some of which might overlap, Serfass predicts.

"For example, the same hybrid system used in the Toyota Prius is used to help power the Toyota fuel cell vehicle, the FCHV," he offers. "Also, you may see hydrogen vehicles that are also plug-ins...Eventually, in the longer term, none of the known technologies today can offer all the benefits that hydrogen vehicles can.

"So while we think there will be many different technologies on the road — look at how many of us are driving vintage vehicles today — as hydrogen fueling stations become more convenient you're just not going to be able to beat the efficiency, zero emissions, long ranges (the latest hydrogen vehicles are getting over 300 mile ranges on the equivalent of four to five gallons of gasoline — four to five kilograms of hydrogen), and flexibility in vehicle design."

Hybrid is the leader now

From the Ford Escape hybrid SUV to the Honda Civic hybrid and Toyota Prius, hybrids are one of the most popular types of alternative fueled vehicles.

"We see that this (hybrid electric light vehicles) is a solid niche business. By 2015, they could be out there at 7 to 15 percent," Rinek notes. But that's not without some drawbacks. "It's a long payback period, even at $3 to $4 a gallon (of gasoline). If you get to $5 a gallon, heaven forbid, the payback comes much faster."

The Freedonia Group Inc., a Cleveland-based research firm, reports that while light vehicle sales in the United States are forecast to grow less than 1 percent annually through 2009, more of the vehicles sold will be diesel or hybrid models. Hybrid models will not overtake conventional spark ignition internal combustion engines (ICEs), because those offered in the United States still use some form of spark ignition.

Two types of hybrids are being developed now. The first type is the full hybrid, with large high-voltage battery packs (Toyota and Honda introduced this in the U.S. market). The second type is the mild hybrid, which provides less electric power, but can be integrated easily into ICE vehicles, according to The Freedonia Group.

That large battery supply is something both techs and others must note.

"Anybody who's servicing these hybrids and getting into these vehicles has to be aware of the lethal shock factor they never had to worry about before," Rinek says, adding this includes people like first responders and "Jaws of Life" users. "That's a lethal 200-to 300-volt bus waiting for you to touch. (Though it is flagged and colored orange), get ready to handle voltages you've never seen before."

While automakers work on hybrids, most of which get upwards of 40 miles per gallon, using one aspect of hybrid technology is still a possibility — electric cars.

GM has announced production versions of its Chevrolet Volt concept, which could operate on a variety of fuels. Also, ZAP and Lotus Engineering are studying the development of a crossover electric SUV, while Brazilian carmaker Obvio! is working on a vehicle that can run on gasoline, natural gas, ethanol, or a combination of those fuels, or on electricity.

Hitting the road

With all the options available, there's a lot for shop operators and members of the distribution channel to consider when determining what they should focus on in their business.

While many future vehicles may have drastically different fuel and ignition systems, many parts of the automobile will remain the same, by-wire and electronic systems aside. And for hybrids, there's still a gasoline engine to contend with.

"We've been looking into what would be most appropriate to stock, and I think that's quite a question right now," says Graham, of InstallerEDGE. "We're in pretty deep discussions right now in other products (to find) whatever is necessary for our customer base in the preventive maintenance arena."

Rinek, with Frost & Sullivan, says WDs and jobbers should keep their ears and eyes open for new information about this changing technology, and find out what the OEMs are up to, what the new technologies are, who is going in which direction, how warranties are set up and information about various parts. Graham agrees with those research sources, but also says it is important to remember the technicians.

"We're talking to them about what they've serviced, what they need and what their ideas are. They have ideas of where the market is headed," he notes. "We try to be all the time a year or two ahead of the market. If we're a year or two ahead of the market, we're in pretty good shape."

Graham adds that the Toyota Prius right now is getting the most attention, but hybrid vehicles in general will be the most prominent on the market.

"When it comes to hydrogen power, pure electricity, they just don't seem to be the same type of option for most consumers," he offers. "We're all in a hurry, we don't have time to charge (batteries). Carrying hydrogen fuel at some type of facility is going to be a problem...Hybrid is a great service for the aftermarket, because it still involves a gas-powered engine and electricity."

Rinek says no matter what type of vehicle power comes to the forefront, there will be service needed. It just won't be the same as today.

For example, tire replacements are becoming a bigger business in light of more aggressive drivers on the road, he says. And entertainment and navigation systems now need maintenance. More automated manual transmissions and dual clutch systems will come about, especially on high-end models. "There's a lot of mechanical stuff in there that could cause problems," he says.

"It's not something that you can bring something on board today and install it tomorrow and understand how to do it," Graham says. "It's understanding what it is that is going to be necessary — installation time and training time necessary to drive and install the part and then, of course, we're providing the part at a competitive rate."