Aftermarket business leaders more confident about their market than overall economy

Jan. 16, 2013
Aftermarket leaders remain concerned about the nation's economic outlook.

Results of the joint Business Confidence Index for November 2012, show that aftermarket business leaders continue to be more confident in the future of the automotive aftermarket over the next 12 months, than they were regarding the economy in general, reports the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA) and Northwood University.

  • The overall AAIA/Northwood University Automotive Aftermarket Business Confidence Index for November was -21.00, a drop from the October reading, placing aftermarket leaders in the middle range of the “slightly less confident”.
  • The overall AAIA/Northwood University Automotive Aftermarket Economic Confidence Index for November was -42.00, down from -23.73 in October marking the seventh month the index has been negative since November 2011. This reading places aftermarket business leaders on the low side of “slightly less confident” in the economy in November.

“It is clear aftermarket leaders had less confidence in the industry in November compared to October of this year and are still concerned,” said Dr. Timothy Nash, Northwood University. “It is also obvious that business leaders were not confident regarding the overall economy in November as well. We believe a continued weak European economy, a slowing Chinese economy and an actual monthly decline in miles driven from September to October 2012 and a year ago, are the primary reasons for disappointing confidence among aftermarket leaders in their business. The historically lower than average gasoline prices give us some reason for optimism in the economy and aftermarket at this time as well as gas prices continued to decline in December. The negative trend with regard to our national debt and that of Europe was worsened by mixed U.S. fundamentals in November with a better than expected revised third quarter GDP report for November showing GDP growth of 3.1 percent up from the second quarter growth for the U.S. The most recent miles driven data shows a slight decrease in miles driven from September to October 2012 and it also shows a decline in miles driven in October 2011 relative to October 2012. A positive resolution to the ‘debt crisis’ discussions in Washington D.C. and around the globe, the adoption of a rational and predictable tax policy in the U.S. would help to offset high world oil prices and enhance aftermarket business confidence in the coming months.”

The twenty-fourth installment of the survey was sent to members on Jan. 10, 2013. Results will be calculated monthly and reported in AAIA SmartBrief. Member responses will be used solely in the aggregate and for the purpose of providing empirical information.

For more information, contact AAIA market intelligence at 301-654-6664 or Dr. Timothy G. Nash, Northwood University at 989-837-4323. These indices are prepared monthly by Dr. Nash and Northwood University aftermarket major, Matt Fusco.

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