The relentless blast of winter weather likely kept car shoppers away from dealerships in January, says Edmunds.com, the premier destination for car shopping. Edmunds.com forecasts that 1,036,533 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in January for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 15.6 million. The projected sales will be a 23.6 percent decrease from December 2013, and a 0.6 percent decrease from January 2013.
January's weather complications mean that sales will likely be made up in February. Fortunately, says Edmunds.com, car shoppers will find a friendly buying environment to make their big purchases.
"Even though 2013 year-end sales events have long passed, market conditions remain quite favorable for buyers," says Edmunds.com Chief Economist Lacey Plache, PhD. "In particular, interest rates, monthly lease payments, and trade-in values are all at some of the best levels expected for the foreseeable future."
SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume
Jan-14 Forecast
Jan-13
Dec-13
Change from Jan 2013*
Change from Dec 2013*
GM
176,541
194,699
230,157
-9.3%
-23.3%
Ford
155,819
165,863
216,592
-6.1%
-28.1%
Toyota
151,195
157,725
190,843
-4.1%
-20.8%
Chrysler Group
128,322
117,731
161,007
9.0%
-20.3%
Honda
98,066
93,626
135,255
4.7%
-27.5%
Nissan
88,070
80,919
109,758
8.8%
-19.8%
Hyundai/Kia
82,182
80,015
96,636
2.7%
-15.0%
VW/Audi
37,620
39,074
51,028
-3.7%
-26.3%
Industry
1,036,533
1,042,530
1,356,984
-0.6%
-23.6%
*NOTE: January 2014 had 25 selling days, January 2013 had 25 and December 2013 had 25.
Edmunds.com's Deals of the Month page identifies some of the strongest deals available right now, including $1,500 off a 2013 Hyundai Elantra and 0% financing for 60 months on a 2014 Chrysler Town and Country minivan.
Dr. Plache cautions, however, that those strong buying conditions are bound to weaken. Auto loan rates, for example, are likely to rise in the near future, and trade-in values will likely soften as used car inventories grow. Dr. Plache sheds more light on today's car shopping market at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/commentary/car-shoppers-find-appealing-deals-even-after-holiday-sales-events.html.
MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market Share
Jan-14 Forecast
Jan-13
Dec-13
Change from
January 2013
(Percentage pts.)
Change from December 2013
(Percentage pts.)
GM
17.0%
18.7%
17.0%
-1.6%
0.1%
Ford
15.0%
15.9%
16.0%
-0.9%
-0.9%
Toyota
14.6%
15.1%
14.1%
-0.5%
0.5%
Chrysler Group
12.4%
11.3%
11.9%
1.1%
0.5%
Honda
9.5%
9.0%
10.0%
0.5%
-0.5%
Nissan
8.5%
7.8%
8.1%
0.7%
0.4%
Hyundai/Kia
7.9%
7.7%
7.1%
0.3%
0.8%
VW/Audi
3.6%
3.7%
3.8%
-0.1%
-0.1%
Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 12.9 million vehicles in January, with fleet transactions accounting for 17.3 percent of total sales. An estimated 2.89 million used cars will be sold in January, for a SAAR of 35.3 million (compared to 2.41 million – or a SAAR of 35.2 million – used car sales in December).
More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in Edmunds.com's Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.
