An analysis from McKinsey & Co. anticipates that the costs associated with bringing hydrogen fuel cell applications to market will be cut in half by 2030.
“This announces the decade of hydrogen,” declares Benoît Potier, co-chairman of the international Hydrogen Council, which commissioned the McKinsey study for release at January’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
“2020 marks the beginning of a new era for energy,” he adds. “As the potential for hydrogen to become part of our global energy system becomes a reality, we can expect fewer emissions and improved security and flexibility.”
Significant drops in cost are expected across more than 20 hydrogen categories, including long-distance and heavy-duty transportation vehicles.
“The Hydrogen Council believes that the report’s findings will not only increase public awareness about the potential of hydrogen to power everyday lives, but also debunk the myth that a hydrogen economy is unattainable due to cost,” says Hyundai Executive Vice Chairman Euisun Chung, who is also a Hydrogen Council co-chair.
“If we are to reach our global climate goals by mid-century and reap the benefits of hydrogen, now is the time to act,” Chung advises. Hyundai is pursuing a pioneering leadership role among automakers in fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) adaptation.
Three main cost-reduction drivers are identified:
- A strong fall in the cost of producing low-carbon and renewable hydrogen;
- Lower distribution and refueling costs thanks to higher load utilization and scale effect on infrastructure utilization; and
- A dramatic decline in the cost of components for end-use equipment under a heightened manufacturing scenario.
“As scale-up of hydrogen production, distribution, as well as equipment & component manufacturing continues,” according to McKinsey Senior Partner Bernd Heid, “cost is projected to decrease by up to 50 percent by 2030 for a wide range of applications -- making hydrogen competitive with other low-carbon alternatives and, in some cases, even conventional options.”
Some 25,000 data points from 30 major firms across the U.S., Europe, Korea, China and Japan were gathered and analyzed to render the report’s conclusions.
“To deliver on this opportunity, supporting policies will be required in key geographies, together with investment support of around $70 billion in the lead-up to 2030 in order to scale-up and achieve hydrogen competitiveness,” Heid points out.
“While this figure is sizable, it accounts for less than 5 percent of annual global spending on energy,” he adds.
Unique fittings and jigs
For forward-looking aftermarket entrepreneurs eager to get a jump on offering maintenance and repairs to this presumably upcoming hydrogen vehicle marketplace, at present it can be tremendously expensive to equip an FCEV service center, according to industry consultant and educator Craig Van Batenburg, owner of the Worcester, Mass.-based Automotive Career Development Center (ACDC).
Outfitting an FCEV bay can cost more than $500,000, he says. In addition to addressing high-voltage risks, specialized fuel-handling procedures and other safety considerations, “the roof of a body shop or mechanical shop has to be replaced” to accommodate adequate venting because of hydrogen’s lighter-than-helium properties. (In comparison, heavier-than-air gasoline fumes gather close to the floor instead of rising to the ceiling, mandating differing ventilation and spark-elimination techniques.)
“Some fuel cell OEM dealers are unwilling to make the investment so they service them outside, where the sky above eliminates threats of accumulating hydrogen,” says Van Batenburg, who has analyzed FCEV repair procedures for the Automotive Service Association (ASA).
“Because hydrogen is extremely flammable, collision facilities (and mechanical repair shops) must be designed to safely vent loose hydrogen,” he explains. “The building that handles FCEVs must be top-vented with no ignition source near the top. If the service area has a lift, this may mean the safety shut-off at the top of the hoist must be converted from electric to pneumatic switching.”
Larger FCEV trucks, trains, boats and aircraft may hold some promise, but “I think light-duty will always be batteries because they’re so far ahead of fuel cells,” says Van Batenburg, remaining partial to battery-based EVs.
“I’m not a huge fan of fuel cells; they haven’t sorted this out yet,” he says of the FCEV sector’s still-to-be-resolved servicing issues. “It’s really complex and fairly dangerous.”
Out on the road, the tab for opening an individual hydrogen fueling station can reach $2.5 million, which will probably require taxpayer subsidies to build a suitable FCEV infrastructure. “It’s interesting watching this all play out,” Van Batenburg observes.
“Hydrogen can be safe, just like gasoline, if rules are followed. Although flammable, it is so lightweight that if released in a collision the hydrogen would quickly dissipate as long as it is released into the atmosphere,” he reports.
“Gasoline produces heavy vapors that pool in low areas and remain explosive. H2 is odorless and colorless, but unlike compressed natural gas (CNG), an odorant cannot be added because it would damage the fuel cell. Just like high-voltage systems and gasoline, safety has to do with education, safe practices and proper equipment,” says Van Batenburg.
“Once you have become proficient on EVs, the FCEV is more about the fuel cell and related support systems because the rest of the vehicle is pretty much an EV.”
Most of the FCEV service market is still within the domain of dealerships that have bought-in to the necessary training and shop equipment.
A hydrogen leak detector, which works much like one used for air conditioning refrigerants, is a primary tool used for routine leak inspections of the hydrogen system -- typically conducted when the tires are rotated. “Because hydrogen is so much lighter than air, the leak detector is used to search above, rather than below, suspect leak areas. Inspections must be done carefully,” Van Batenburg points out.
“One repair that a body shop will likely encounter after a front-end collision is the replacement of the coolant in multiple radiators,” he adds. “These vehicles are highly sensitive to changes in critical fluids.” The fuel cell stack coolant cools the actual fuel cell interior, so it must be non-conductive. “Adding anything other than the specified coolant can cause a ground short fault that will stop vehicle operation. The flushing procedure for contaminated coolant is extensive and expensive.”
If a repair requires welding, or if it is at the rear of the vehicle, you may have to remove the fiber-wound high-pressure fuel tanks. OEMs have been fabricating unique fittings and jigs to facilitate tank removal. “Even the dealerships do not own these tools. Instead, they borrow them from the manufacturer,” according to Van Batenburg.
Shifting training priorities
If this trend toward FCEVs truly starts taking hold, it signals to industry parts professionals that they will be dealing with an unfamiliar array of new components, joined by mechanical and collision technicians tasked with repairing advanced FCEV propulsion units along with mastering accompanying innovations in lighter-weight body and structural materials.
Shifting educational priorities and changes in shop-equipment needs are already being contemplated. Fuel cell training programs are becoming available; the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) is a preliminary resource for exploring FCEV careers and instructional opportunities.
In January EERE introduced a Training and Workforce Development grant program for businesses and institutions that includes awarding up to $2 million for “creating cohesive, strategic and well-coordinated regional efforts to develop the skills necessary to support the growing hydrogen and fuel cell industry.”
