The global executives see the American resurgence spurred by product innovation, continued improvement in product quality and restructuring activities. The rise in optimism for U.S. OEMs represents a significant turnaround from KPMG's 2007 survey, when few predicted market share gains, or a steady climb in global rankings.
Ford more likely to grow than Nissan, Toyota, Honda
While the 200 C-level executive respondents in the KPMG study believe several European and Asian OEMs will gain share – they also think Ford is more likely to grow market share than Nissan, Toyota and Honda. In fact, Ford was the only U.S. OEM to rank in the survey's top 10 most likely market share winners.
When asked to predict global market share winners over the next five years, nearly half (47 percent) of the auto execs believed Ford, ranked 8th, would register market share gains, up from 43 in 2011 and 29 percent in 2010. As an apparent positive indication of the Chrysler/Fiat combination, 39 percent of executives expect the combined Fiat/Chrysler Group to gain market share (versus 24 percent expected Chrysler share to rise and 31 percent expected Fiat to gain in the 2011 survey).
Slightly fewer auto execs foresee General Motors increasing market share in the next five years, GM ranked 15th – finishing at 38 percent this year versus 40 percent in 2011, but still up considerably from just 13 percent in 2010.
Investments in products, innovation helped
"This year's survey results clearly demonstrate that the investments in new products and product innovation over the past several years have helped U.S. auto manufacturers become more competitive," said Gary Silberg, National Automotive Industry leader for KPMG LLP. "Moreover, it is a clear indication that perceptions of U.S. automakers and auto quality have changed."
In KPMG's 2007 auto study, by comparison, 62 percent of global execs foresaw a decrease in market share for U.S. OEMs, with only 14 percent expecting an increase.
In that study, however, 64 percent of the execs expected the restructuring of U.S. OEMs to be completed before 2011. And when asked if the restructuring would allow the OEMs to be more efficient and competitive, 58 percent of the 2007 study respondents believed that would be the case, with only 10 percent disagreeing.
Silberg added, "As recent sales figures might demonstrate, U.S. OEMs have much stronger product portfolios, and as a result they are returning to profitability."
Fastest growing manufacturers in Asia
According to the KPMG survey, seven of the top ten fastest growing manufacturers are from Asia, including five from high growth markets China and India. The likely market share gainers, as predicted by the global executives, include Volkswagen (Germany) (#1), Hyundai/Kia (Korea)(#2), BMW (Germany)(#3), Tata (India) (#4), BAIC Motor Co (China)(#5), SAIC Motor (China) (#6), Chery Motors(China)(#7), Ford (U.S.) (#8), Nissan (Japan)(#9), Geely (China) (#10). Toyota and Honda just missed the top 10, ranking 11 and 12 respectively.
The brands most often predicted to lose market share in the 2012 survey include Subaru, Mitsubishi, Suzuki and Mazda.
