AASA: Don’t discount miles driven in long-term forecasts

Miles driven has long been one of the most-watched statistics in the automotive aftermarket. A key market driver, the growth rate in miles driven typically mirrors the growth rate of the aftermarket.

Jan. 1, 2020

Miles driven has long been one of the most-watched statistics in the automotive aftermarket. A key market driver, the growth rate in miles driven typically mirrors the growth rate of the aftermarket.

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In recent years, however, there has been a huge disconnect between miles driven and aftermarket growth. Miles driven have been stagnant for nearly five years, yet aftermarket growth continues. This has led to the perception from many in the industry that this trend will continue; even that a decline over time in miles driven is inevitable.

Nothing is further from the truth, at least according to one well-respected forecast. The EIA forecasts that annual light vehicle miles driven will increase by one trillion miles between now and 2035.

In this “AASA Industry Analysis,” AASA Vice President Paul McCarthy examines why miles driven will remain a future tailwind for the aftermarket and should not be discounted when predicting the continued growth of the aftermarket. Read it now.