The Future of the U.S. Automotive Aftermarket: Key Insights from the 2026 Landmark Study

MEMA Aftermarket Suppliers and consulting firm Strategy& released the “Landmark Study, Evolution of the U.S. Automotive Aftermarket to 2035,”—a survey report projecting the U.S. aftermarket will exceed $700 billion by the end of the decade. The report features interviews with 24 MEMA supplier executives and industry stakeholders and highlights a fundamental shift: future growth will depend not on traditional drivers like vehicle count and miles driven, but on pricing, component complexity, and technology-driven repairs. It also reveals what many in the automotive aftermarket have come to understand—without equitable access to vehicle data and stronger relationships across the professional repair ecosystem, the aftermarket faces significant hurdles. Emily Poladian, president of MEMA, discusses the study's key findings and what suppliers must do to compete in this transformed landscape.

MEMA's landmark study projects growth beyond $700 billion, powered by technology-driven repairs and pricing—not vehicle count. What's the biggest single driver behind that growth trajectory?

Emily Poladian: So, it's really being driven a lot more by the increasing complexity of the vehicles. With ADAS and other software-enabled systems on the vehicles, you're going to see an increased amount of higher-cost parts that are going to be needed for repairs, as well as probably a higher cost of repair because of the complexity of the software needs, the data access needs that will be involved. So, the growth is much more based on price and mix than it is on volume. If I remember correctly, it's about a 3.4% CAGR, and about 1% of that is volume-based. And the rest of it would be on price, mix of components, and the type of repairs that are being done.

The study signals a shift away from traditional growth drivers. What does that mean for suppliers?

Poladian: I think the big thing that's going to mean for suppliers is that they need to think about not just the complement of products that they make, but a little bit of a difference in how they get them to market and how they focus on training around the product. This is very different than pulling off a brake pad and putting another one on. Now you've got a lot more software work, calibration work, et cetera. So, I think they really need to be focusing on technician training and not necessarily just relying on retail partners to be the ones that are answering those questions or providing it. They need to think about how they get straight to the technician with that.

I also think our capabilities of getting data to people are changing. It's a whole new world. What's the first thing you do when you need to repair something in your house? You look to see if there's a YouTube video. I think the need for that is going to increase. I'm also getting to the point where the first thing I do is go ask ChatGPT. So, how do we think about making sure those kinds of queries get answered properly because they're working off of publicly available information? How do you put that information out there in a way to make sure that it's going to get properly pulled if somebody's using AI for their query and trying to figure out what's going on? I think that complexity and that technology is going to come more into play in the selling process and the information needed to end users than maybe what people are thinking about currently.

Training is always top of mind in the industry, but just getting to it is a little difficult. Do you think there needs to be more of an emphasis on making sure people are trained from the beginning, as opposed to midstream with parts and products?

Poladian: In a perfect world, yes. But how do we do that? I know that's got to be a frustration for the entire industry because, number one, you don't have enough technicians generally anyway. And because of that, you're also going to have a lot of turnover on technicians. I'm sure that a lot of people are out there thinking, 'Well, I'm investing a lot of money into training somebody who a year later may go work for somebody else.' In a perfect world, as an industry, we would think about how to improve this for the entire industry. We would consider how to work with more vocational schools, or how to create better infrastructure for vocational training. How do we attract more people to be technicians? It's not greasy wrench turning like most people think of from the past—it's much more technical and approach now. We as an industry should find a way to promote that image, to promote a great educational system to drive that, and create a way for all suppliers to benefit from a push of that training. I don't know how to make that perfect world, but that would be the perfect world in my view.

You interviewed 24 MEMA supplier executives for the research. Were there any findings that surprised you?

Poladian: We are seeing DIY declining. We are seeing the do-it-for-me market increasing. Think back in the days, lifting the hood on a car—there's an engine, and there's lots of room around it. Now, you lift the hood on the car, and you can barely get your hand in anywhere. They're becoming more complex. So, people are not fixing their own cars, and it makes sense. But the fact that it was at about 82%, I think it's pretty high.

What about shop consolidation and the impact of private equity?

Poladian: We're seeing a lot of impact of private equity in the market. I think private equity is coming, moving into spaces that we might not have ever thought they'd be that interested in. And we're seeing more and more of it in the shop world. I think that's going to really change the dynamics because now, instead of a bunch of mom and pop or smaller shops, we're going to start seeing more national shop dynamics, which is going to change an approach for suppliers, distributors, and retailers because suddenly, they're going to be dealing with more of a corporate, end-to-end shop environment.

Suppliers have not traditionally had to worry too much down the value chain. They wanted to work with the distributors and retailers and provide them with the information. I think that as shop consolidation happens more and more, they're going to need to think more and more about how to service that customer as well, even though they're not my direct customer. The rate at which that's happening, I do agree it's happening faster than probably a year or two ago anybody would have said.

In the study, pricing, complexity, and technology-driven repairs are identified as new growth engines. How should aftermarket suppliers be repositioning their portfolios to stay ahead of the curve?

Poladian: I think it may be different for every supplier. It kind of depends on what kind of product category you're involved in, because engine, or lack of engine, motor technology may not impact everybody the same. Obviously, there have been EPA changes recently that have changed the rate of moving into hybrid or battery electric. But it's still going to happen—it's just going to happen at a little slower pace than when it was a little bit more forced by government requirements.

I think what everybody needs to be focused on is that there are technologies that are here to stay. While people may be owning their cars longer, the shift in the ratio of those cars in the car parc may change at a slower rate than we originally thought, but it's happening. When they think about their portfolio, it's got to be around that shift in the ratio of the technologies and how they need to respond to it.

If you're making a part that's going to talk to something else in the car, how do you understand that entire nervous system of the car that we speak and what the impact is going to be?

Access to vehicle data is essential for the independent aftermarket. How urgent is that issue, and how does MEMA see the path going forward with that?

Poladian: I would say it's very urgent because there are going to be things that you can't repair without the data. If there isn't equitable access to it, well, No. 1, it's very impactful for a whole bunch of people's businesses on the independent side. If they can't get access to it, but it's hugely impactful for the consumer because there's just simply not enough capacity for that to be controlled completely by dealerships.

When I think about the impact, it's not just industry-specific—it's population-specific because it will take a whole lot longer and potentially be a whole lot more expensive for anybody to get anything fixed on their vehicle. So, it's hugely important.

MEMA is front and center on this with our government advocacy work that we're doing. We're working with a coalition of partners on right to repair. We have a lot of momentum right now. Nothing's guaranteed, of course. But we probably have more momentum now than we ever have had on getting attention. It has bipartisan attention and sponsorship, which is good. The chance of it getting rolled into a larger legislative package, potentially this year. So we continue to fight the good fight on that.

What role do you see warehouse distributors playing in helping the independent aftermarket capture the growth this study is projecting?

Poladian: Warehouse distributors have always played an important role in this ecosystem. They get the product closer to the end user, and they provide a lot of expertise. For most manufacturers, their distribution partners act as an extension of their sales staff in a lot of ways. So. I think there's still huge value that they play in being a partner to suppliers.

It's a question of whether they have the right relationships on both sides because they kind of sit in the middle of that value chain. Do they understand regionally, or if there are different warehouse locations, what parts need to be there? Do they understand their inventory levels? Do they have the right sales staff, or do they have the right relationships? Ideally, it should almost feel like a seamless partnership between the two, where if the WD is strong and growing, it's good for the supplier. If the supplier is providing the right products and services to the WD, then they have the opportunity to grow as well. It's a very important relationship.

The study projects to 2035, which is about a decade away. How does MEMA plan to use this research to shape advocacy and programming in the near term?

Poladian: Well, with all of our advocacy work, we have a great team, and they do so much in that realm. Part of what they need to do is figure out prioritization. We only have so many people and so many hours in the day. Even though they feel like they're 24/7, we don't want them to work 24/7. So, what are the right things? A report like this is great because it gives us that future view. It gives us something very tangible to sit and talk with our members about.

This is a great projection by Strategy&, and some of it will be right. Some of it may not be. Some of it may be right by 2040 or 2045. We don't know for sure. But it's a great view out. It just sets a stage to say, “OK, if we believe that this is a good approximation for what's going to be reality in 2035, what's important to you as suppliers, and what do you need us to be focusing on?”

I view it as this report is a great stake in the ground so that we're all having a common truth, so to speak, to base those prioritizations on. Our members will have access to this report. Based on the landmark studies we do, we know that they really make good use of it. They will be looking at it. And this will be the discussion that we have with members moving forward. What are your reactions to this, and what do we need to be focusing on?

What's the most important action aftermarket suppliers should take in the next 12 months based on this?

Poladian: Thinking of somebody who was a previous business owner, a business manager of a major supplier, I would say most suppliers are doing annual planning in a three-year or five-year cycle. So, what I would say is this is outside of your normal planning cycle, but it's a reality of things that are coming. Nobody goes from A to Z in one jump. So what do you need to do in planning cycle one, two, three—however many it takes for you to get to 2035—so that you're incrementally making the right steps so that when 2035 rolls around, you're ready for it? We can't be ready for 10-ish years from now without making some decisions today. So, I would be sharing it with my leadership team. If I were a CEO of a company, I would be saying, “What do we need to be doing in the next three to five years so that we are on a path that converges with where the industry is going to be?”

Interested in the Landmark Study, Evolution of the U.S. Automotive Aftermarket to 2035? Get the full report here.