There are seven key factors that impact the heavy duty aftermarket, Stu MacKay of specialized management consulting and market research firm MacKay & Company told attendees to this year’s Heavy Duty Aftermarket Dialogue (HDAD). The event was held in late January in Las Vegas.
Put on by the Heavy Duty Manufacturers Association (HDMA), HDAD is an outlook conference, specifically directed toward the heavy duty aftermarket supplier industry, that is intended to provide an in-depth view of the prospects for the global heavy duty industry’s aftermarket component for the next five years.
HDMA represents companies participating in the Class 4 to 8 original truck equipment and aftermarket parts manufacturing industry.
The seven factors are:
- Retail truck sales forecast.
- Vehicle operating populations.
- Average annual vehicle age.
- Product longevity.
- Annual average miles.
- Fleet utilization.
MacKay said what hasn’t changed much in the heavy duty aftermarket over the past year is:
- Operating vehicle universe.
- Annual mileages. Class 6, 31,990 miles; Class 7, 33,000; Class 8, 75130; trailers, 59450; and chassis, 6,900.
- Overall number of distribution outlets.
- Distribution market shares.
- Vehicle utilization.
What has changed is:
- Class 8 fleet utilization up a point to 84 percent.
- Average vehicle age up a few months.
- Average prices up about 18 percent.
- Total aftermarket up nearly 3 percent.
The 2013 U.S. operating universe was 8,967,000 vehicles, MacKay & Company research determined. Class 8 accounted for 2.8 million vehicles, trailer and container chassis, 4.6 million and Class 6 and 7, 1.5 million.
Aftermarket demand by vocation was $22.7 million, reported MacKay. For-hire made up the largest demand at 31 percent; private fleets, 18 percent; lease/rental, 14 percent; construction/mining, 12 percent; owner operator, 6 percent; agriculture, 6 percent; school bus, 4 percent; government, 4 percent; refuse, 3 percent; and other 2 percent.
Fleet demand by fleet size was: greater than 500 vehicles, 36 percent; less than 10, 20 percent; 100 to 499, 17 percent; 25 to 99, 15 percent; and 10 to 24, 12 percent.
The composition of the aftermarket demand channels shares, MacKay said, was: OE dealer, 42 percent; heavy duty distributor, 18 percent; independent garages, 14 percent; specialists, 8 percent; engine distributors, 6 percent; auto parts stores, 6 percent; and other 6 percent.
A breakdown of the truck and trailer service market